Insight

No Recession yet, but Risks Are Rising. Are You Prepared?

In this paper, Jamie Newton, CFA, and Head of Global Fixed Income Research, discusses why we have not yet seen a recession, why one is likely coming, and how investors can best prepare for it in the months ahead.

Part of a yellow bridge zoomed in, creating geometric shapes against a blue sky.

Authors

8/17/2023

8 min read

Topic

Market Events

Key takeaways

  • Years of accumulation of low-coupon debt, residual COVID stimulus, and the work-from-home movement have kept economic growth positive in spite of higher rates.
  • However, there are a number of indicators that suggest the economy will likely succumb to recession later in 2023 or in early 2024.
  • Investors can prepare by extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios in the next several months, staying diversified, and maintaining a bias toward quality.
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