Portfolio Manager Commentaries

The Fed is in the easing portion of its cycle and the bar to stop will be high now that they’ve begun.

The Fed finally delivered its interest rate cut but we have come to the conclusion that the committee may be divided.

Since we last wrote in June, the money markets have become more firmly convinced interest rates are headed lower and soon.

The FOMC met this month and as expected left its target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. As we have been writing about for several months, market volatility in short term rates has been directly correlated to expectations and timing of future policy rate moves.

As widely expected—and most certainly by us—the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady at its last meeting ending May 1. In its statement, the Fed noted that the environment still warranted higher rates for a bit longer, and it remains highly attentive to inflation.

If Fed watchers could assign a theme to this year’s first trimester it would likely be “disappointment.” Find out why Allspring anticipates the next rate cuts won't be until late this year.

The Feds meeting on March 20th was quite uneventful as there were no rate changes this month. If 2023's impressive disflation resumes in the coming moths, we believe the Fed will probably have the confidence it needs to begin lowering rates this summer.

This month was short on good news for market participants and long on pushback from the Federal Reserve (Fed). On the macroeconomic front, data this month broadly came in stronger than—or at least in line with—expectations, largely removing the likelihood of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in March.

At its first meeting of 2024, the Fed kept rates steady and signaled that cuts are next. But the question remains "when?"

After a record-breaking 2022, the Fed continued its aggressive tightening in 2023. However, the second half of the year saw a downward trend in inflation, which led to three consecutive pauses by year-end.

The FOMC has left rates unchanged since July. This extended pause, combined with favorable-trending inflation data, has caused market participants to believe that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is finished.